Ondas Inc (Derivatives) (ONDS)

$ONDS Trading right back on 200 DSMA and lower AVWAP.

Momentum trading at lows. If it were to pop again… now would be a good time. https://t.co/OZCsC4d1oL

$ONDS Almost time again https://t.co/nZwOkwpwK3

Ondas $ONDS signs a definitive agreement to acquire Cyberhawk, the global leader in critical infrastructure intelligence (drone inspection + iHawk software + AI analytics), for ~$125M, ~95% cash, with an estimated close in Q3 2026.

Read:

-Shift to the commercial/critical infrastructure axis. Until now the core was defense and security. Cyberhawk adds an industrial arm with blue‑chip customers (PG&E, Southern California Edison, Shell, Qatar Energy, Bechtel), covering 40 countries and 300+ clients. A coherent dual‑use diversification, not a dispersion.

-What matters is not scale, but revenue quality. ~$45M of revenue (FY to March 2027), but ~95% recurring via multi‑year contracts and SaaS subscriptions, and $95M of backlog. This revenue is structurally superior to the lumpy, defense‑award‑dependent revenue.

-Cash financing = no dilution. With ~$1.480M liquidity (cash + short‑term investments as of 31‑Mar‑2026), the ~$120M check represents ~8% of the balance sheet. No new issuance. It also breaks the stock‑based M&A pattern (Mistral, World View): paying in cash instead of equity signals an inverted Myers‑Majluf – a stance that avoids issuing equity at these prices.

-Data flywheel. 500,000+ assets inspected and 232+ TB of proprietary data: a foundation for predictive maintenance and asset‑health intelligence. This type of asset, when well executed, justifies software‑type multiples rather than drone‑service multiples.

⚠️ Discipline: this is a definitive agreement (more than an MOU), but it has NOT yet closed. Revenue and margin are management forecasts, and >25% EBITDA is a promise to 2030 – a distant cash flow that my WACC penalizes. I won’t adjust the DCF until the close (Q3 2026) and verification in the 8‑K/10‑Q.

Impact on the thesis: REINFORCED (qualitative). Quality diversification, no dilution, and an alignment signal. Quantitative review will be done at close.

I maintain a position in $ONDS. Not financial advice.

#ODS #DefenseTech #Inversión