Coinbase Global Inc (Derivatives) (COIN)

$COIN 1W

Good place to become bullish again, weekly div into HTF support which is 0.618 Fib. https://t.co/KNOpU3F9yU

Every great industrial revolution has had overinvestment due to the potential for riches for the last companies standing. Eventually this ends in a bust. AI I believe is no different. But I believe the current “speedbump” is not the beginning of that ultimate bust.

On Saturday June 20th, I laid out my near-term concerns of an AI “speedbump” due to:
1) Token minimization
2) Competitive low cost open-sourced LLM models
3) Rising semiconductor cost impact on Q3 guidance

Monday June 22nd in hindsight turned out to be the short-term top for the semiconductor index and the momentum trade.

Token maximation in March turned into token minimization by June with the most extreme example being the $COIN CEO on June 26th posting how they cut their token spend by nearly 50% by largely routing AI queries to cheaper models.

In the near-term, the question becomes can token usage by the other 99% of firms go up fast enough to offset the top 1% of firms like Coinbase cutting their AI bills.

Numerous cheaper LLMs have been