Opinion (OPN)

Got trapped by $OPN and felt foolish. Checked Dune; the trading volume in the past few days is barely second place (though still far behind Polymarket's scale), but daily active users have dropped to just three to five hundred. Is it that Asian users aren't comfortable with prediction markets, or that all Asian prediction market participants only use Polymarket? 🤔 I saw on @opinionlabsxyz that a 10% arbitrage opportunity hasn't been taken by anyone (of course, the settlement date being the end of the year is also an issue). Currently, the probability that Polymarket will issue a token larger than 5B is only 47% (it's not that people are pessimistic about this market cap; it's that a token not issued by year-end will be resolved as No), while the probability of issuing a token by year-end is 57%. In other words, buying >5B and a year-end non-issuance only costs 47c + 43c = 90c, which guarantees receiving $1 by year-end. A 10% return over 9 months translates to roughly a 13% annualized yield. Of course, the black swan would be Polymarket issuing a token this year but failing to reach 5B, which would be a total loss... Can't be, right? That seems unlikely?! 😱

Kalshi doing $110M revenue in 30 days is honestly insane. To put that into perspective that’s more than the FDV of some L1 and L2 chains. But quietly, @opinionlabsxyz isn’t doing bad either. They’re currently 4th in prediction market revenue even after launching the $OPN token ($318M FDV). And right now they are pushing hard on liquidity rewards: • 50% Maker Rebate where you earn half of the trading fee • It also stacks with Maker Liquidity Points • Plus daily USDT payouts So people providing liquidity are earning points + daily USDT. Looking ahead, their 2026 roadmap includes: • Automated sports and esports markets • Crypto milestone markets • Community-curated markets powered by $OPN The bigger picture is simple: Prediction markets are no longer small experiments. They are slowly becoming places where attention, opinions and money meet. And the earlier you understand this shift, the better positioned you are.

$OPN breaks the current region, approaching 0.5x https://t.co/zp45TVFIxI

Second test ✅ Before and after 9% https://t.co/yLZHBc0DrG

$OPN is forecasted on the BSC chain AE. Lowcap remember SL Note: DYOR https://t.co/nmt1yKyXW1

so the project was openmind, which sybiled its own airdrop for figs & more details, check out this post by altace https://t.co/lvqeFlKY56 as it can be observe they used a daisy chain method to claim the airdrop & the origin wallets were funded around 2 months earlier (in jan) while the airdrop checker went live on 21 feb so there is around a 40-day gap which gives us a good idea that the team is likely behind this sybil activity

Latest data on prediction markets daily notional volume, @Polymarket and @Kalshi leading at ~$300M daily, @opinionlabsxyz down to $14M from an all time high volume of $600M+, that's 97% decline. Comes straight after the $OPN token last week. Currently trading at $340M FDV, Guess the volume was all farmers farming the airdrop. What was the last round Opinion raised at?