Hyperliquid (HYPE)

Why is CT with downfall of $HYPE? I’ve never seen CT so unified with bringing down one of the most successful apps to come out of this cycle.

my thesis is the mental model people have for valuing perp dexs is wrong. they are insanely cyclical and pa is dependent on reflexivity and orthogonal to revenue. hl went from marketshare that we may never see again in perp dex land and the pa was never that good. maybe you have the thesis that everything is incentives, and that is probably right, but you are going to have to wait ~18 months for each “good” perp dex incentive cycle to end. people are still assuming hl will do/did another incentive loop, it can be a very long time for any dex that tge’d well to finish incentive loops! moreover, most of the delta in hl’s oi delta comes from <50 entities, and everyone knows this, but it seems no one internalizes this. so while hl has much more organic oi, in my mind people shorthand this to be some user weighted value on hl which is unequivocally the wrong interpretation and will cause you to build false priors. the claim you are making is hl’s currently has more whales/entities doing mid freq, which is fine,

Liquidity no longer defines dominance. Execution does. Markets are no longer clustering around where capital sits. They are consolidating around where trades clear fastest, cheapest, and with the least slippage. That distinction is now the entire power shift. TVL describes the surface. Execution determines the outcome. ● Perp Engines Are the First True Execution Monopolies Perps already internalize the entire trading stack: > Matching > Funding > Liquidations > Margin > Risk warehousing This is why protocols like @HyperliquidX, @GMX_IO, @Lighter_xyz, @DriftProtocol and @dYdX now dominate fee density without requiring dominant TVL. They do not compete on pool depth. They compete on: > Latency > Slippage control > Liquidation precision > Funding efficiency Users do not “shop” between these venues the way they do with DEXs. They anchor to the execution environment. That behavioral lock-in is why fee stability in perps now outcompetes both swap fees and lending yield, even in sideways markets. ● Router

The Core contributor $HYPE allocation (about 24% of supply) is set to begin unlocking in November of this year. At current prices that's about 440 million of additional supply added to the market each month (through Oct 2027), a total of ~$10B. This is also not to mention the ~39% of supply earmarked for "Future Emissions & Community Rewards". Which, at current prices, would add ~$16.3 billion to the circulating supply. I am working on some longer form analysis but do believe it will be extremely interesting to watch how the HL team navigates what is an extremely delicate line: For the % allocated to future emissions and community rewards, they'll have to balance following through w/ another iteration of points/airdrops while weighing the potential implications on the price of $HYPE and existing holders This is also not to mention potentially cashing out some of their core contributor allocations and profiting off of what they have built, risking the perceived "purity of the project" and - again - poten