Pendle (PENDLE)

not advice. i'm probably wrong. but i'm in anyway. tired of seeing many empty yield promises but this one is different $132M TVL with zero emissions. i had to read that twice. in a market where protocols literally pay people to use them, @almanak has a whale sitting on $17M and generating $5.96M in annualized fees (to curators). if you change your perspective almanak is selling you time not yields. love to look into their looping strategy (coming soon): borrow → loop → rebalance → unwind with AI managing liquidation risk + some bullish pointers below 👇 1) their @pendle_fi setup is honestly impressive PT-alUSD → @eulerfinance → 90% LTV → recursive USDC borrowing. i've been playing with this for a week. the capital efficiency is stupid good. the fact that i can leverage PT positions with 90% LTV and the system hasn't immediately liquidated me tells me they actually thought through the risk parameters. $13.92M in liquidity, $19.69M weekly volume. people are using this. the YT degens running 356x leverage. 2) TGE timing looks deliberately well planned they're launching post-pendle maturity (11 dec), pre-christmas, right when early users can show returns. that's either extreme confidence or they know something about demand we don't. either way, i'm interested. tge date finally confirmed on the 11th dec, community members lik @fezz_gg and @0xAgentKitchen were smart enough to guess that it could be around dec 12-18. right after pendle maturity ends, before holiday liquidity evaporates. 3) thoughts on valuation comparable defi x ai plays are sitting at $200-800M fdv. Almanak has better revenue multiples and an actual moat (the automation layer). my golden number: $300-400M FDV at launch is fair. Above $500M and i'm out. here's what I keep coming back to: everyone's farming points and planning to dump at TGE. almost nobody's thinking about what this looks like in 12 months when they have 20+ automated strategies and you can actually set-and-forget a diversified defi portfolio. if they pull that iff it will be a $3-5B protocol, easy. >> reasonably, what could go wrong (because i am not delusional) << daily users are declines after campaign and tge. more importantly, we've never seen AI risk management survive a real black swan in defi. the first time an almanak strategy mass-liquidates users, trust is gone forever. i've lived through 2022. I watched algorithmic protocols implode. ai sounds great until it encounters a 40% drawdown. >> why i'm still in << i've spent enough time in defi to know: the protocols that win dont have the highest APY. drawing some examples here: @LidoFinance - largest liquid staked eth $LDO @SolvProtocol - largest onchain bitcoin reserve $SOLV @ether_fi - largest card rollout and $1B revenue projection $ETHER @opentensor - largest decentralized ai network $TAO @peaq - largest ai machine network $PEAQ @solomon_labs - first community-focused protocol for yield bearing stablecoin on @solana $SOSLO ... and many more they're all solving their respective problems at scale. i'll give it 70/30 odds they actually pull off their defi x ai automation thesis. that's good enough for me to stay curious and positioned.

It looks like our @TheoriqAI is receiving deposits for Alpha Vault through a partnership with @turtledotxyz. In Turtle's case, it assists in receiving funds from various protocols and operating them in a vault format, and it enables mining not only the specific protocol but also points from multiple protocols. I also recall allocating these funds as stablecoins to various places for mining, and with Theoriq onboarding as well, I sense the possibility of multi-mining (points). Depositing in the familiar environment (Turtle), which has supported deposits without major incidents, and using these funds together with Theoriq's relatively high Ethereum-based interest rates, I believe that Turtle's marketing power combined with Theoriq's attractive rates will create good synergy. But will they also create a Pendle product? Haha

New milestone unlocked: my first 500 YAPS is here. It's pretty intriguing to look back at where I started. + My first yapped project: @pendle_fi + My first rewards claimed on Kaito: HOME from @defiapp + My most remarkable achievement so far: $BARD airdrop and becoming a voice of @Lombard_Finance Tbh, this milestone wouldn't be reachable without all of your support. Next targets will be: Katana, Theo, Arbitrum, and many more. And ofc 1,000 YAPS.